[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271513 RRB
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009

...RETRANSMISSION OF PRODUCT...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N5W 2N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 16W EXTENDING TO 4S28W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 6S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 1N BETWEEN 21W-23W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS S OF 1N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
REGION...WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE
SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N78W. ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE W GULF...SE TO S SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE PRESENT
AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N AND CENTRAL
GULF. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE CONUS...A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
FRONT. THIS SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE GULF...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF.
ALSO...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO THE
N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE OF CUBA NEAR
20N75W NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE W NORTH ATLC. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THIS FRONT. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE CONFLUENCE
IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 65W-74W. ALSO...INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE OF CUBA NEAR
20N75W TO 26N64W TO 32N46W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. TO THE W OF THIS FRONT...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N78W. ALSO...ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE E ATLC N OF 24N E OF 21W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW NEAR 33N14W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND
UPPER LOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
23N23W TO 25N17W TO A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N18W. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY 28/0600 UTC. THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N17W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
29N15W TO 30N15W TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N18W. THE 1011
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N18W IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY
28/0600 UTC. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW MOROCCO
NEAR 28N11W TO W MOROCCO NEAR 32N10W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOWS AND SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF 21W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 9N E OF 58W. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 6N BETWEEN
42W-51W.

$$
COHEN















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