[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 14W...
TO 2S20W 3S30W 1S40W 2S44W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF 20W...AND SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN
40W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THIS AREA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THIS MEANS THAT WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 23N
WEST OF 89W MOVING EASTWARD. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AT THE
UPPER LEVELS IS EVERYWHERE ELSE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THIS
AREA WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST FROM 48 HOURS TO
72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IT RUNS INTO LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY
WIND FLOW WHICH STARTS FROM EL SALVADOR AND NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS THAT
IS REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY
IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STILL-EVIDENT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC
OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL-TO-SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS DRIVING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N46W TO 27N60W TO 23N70W...ACROSS THE CAICOS ISLANDS TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH
32N52W TO 28N60W TO 22N73W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BUILT ITS WAY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A 32N40W 26N43W 10N45W
RIDGE. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM A BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N17W TO 25N20W TO 19N27W
TO 12N36W. A TROUGH CONNECTS A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N20W TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N15W.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 32N15W LOW CENTER TO 26N15W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W...
AND NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 22W.

$$
MT



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