[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W EQ25W EQ35W INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 1W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 23W-26W...FROM 1S-1N
BETWEEN 28W-31W...AND FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 38W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N83W 25N90W 19N94W 20N99W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 25N87W 20N90W 18N93W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHILE GALE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF W OF 90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W
CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO FUNNEL THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N48W TO 30N54W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES W ALONG 29N60W 31N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 67W-71W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N39W.  IN THE TROPICS S OF 20N...FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE ADVECTING PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 27N26W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 10N40W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO W CUBA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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