[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 1N20W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 44W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 19W-22W...FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 27W-35W...AND FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING ON-SHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS
OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 24N AND W OF 92W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. 15-20 KT E WINDS ARE W OF 90W WHILE
10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE E OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO ALONG 97W. 70-90 KT UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT... CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS DUE TO RETURN FLOW
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER E CUBA AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N77W 20N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 67W S OF 16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 60W-71W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH MORE ISOLATED PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER E CUBA...AND
INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N82W.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E
OF 63W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT W OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W AND
PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 996 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 33N66W. THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E
CUBA ALONG 30N63W 22N77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N26W TO
20N53W. A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE FROM EQ-24N
BETWEEN 20W-48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
ATLANTIC N OF 20N. A RIDGE IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-70W. ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE LOW N OF
THE AREA TO MOVE NE TO 40N55W IN 24 HOURS AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO
A 962 MB STORM WITH CONVECTION. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA NEAR 32N47W AND EXTEND S TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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