[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N10W EQ20W EQ40W AND INTO
NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 8W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL FROM 5S-4N BETWEEN
47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N84W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS W OF THE LOW TO NE MEXICO ALONG
25N90W 24N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA ALONG 29N81W 27N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. 10-15 KT NE FLOW IS N OF
THE FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT S FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. A PATCH OF
DENSE SEA FOG IS OVER THE SE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO ALONG 100W. A 130-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO MOVE SE
OUT OF THE GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE TEXAS COAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W S OF
14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 60W-62W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W...OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND INLAND
OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF 63W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE
SHOWERS OVER VENEZUELA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG
32N62W 29N70W 27N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN
62W-80W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N33W 27N48W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N32W PRODUCING STABLE WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N. A RIDGE
IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N60W TO THE
SOUTH BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
EXPECT THE OTHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE S OF 30N IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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