[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N1W 2N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 40W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 2E-1W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG 31N84W 29N86W 27N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N. 10-15 KT NE FLOW IS N OF THE
FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. A PATCH
OF SEA FOG IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM KEY WEST TO NAPLES FLORIDA
FROM 24-26N BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A 130-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N AND E OF 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT TO DRIFT S IN 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
TAMPICO MEXICO WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA N OF
15N AND E OF 72W...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...AND INLAND
OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN
T AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND N FLORIDA ALONG
32N77W 30N82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN
70W-80W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N65W. A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 27N50W 23N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N32W
PRODUCING STABLE WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
32N56W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT THE PRESENT FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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