[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W
AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM NORTH AND 90 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 16W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PROGRESSIVE MID LATITUDE PATTERN WITH STRONG MIDDLE TO
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES COVERS THE GULF REGION BETWEEN THE SRN
EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS SRN FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF S OF SARASOTA W TO 27N84W. FROM THAT POINT A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS W TO 27N96W IN THE WRN GULF. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE NRN GULF. THE STRONG WESTERLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. S-SE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF W
OF 87W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE MAINTAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE SE AND SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BY STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND WITHIN 90
NM OF A LINE FROM CARACAS VENEZUELA TO 16N80W IN THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 28N47W SHIFTS EWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS SLOWLY MOVING SE AND ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING W-SW TO STUART FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE BOUNDARY N OF 27N. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF
THE W ATLC WITH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE COLD
FRONT AND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N47W.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING TRADE WIND FLOW TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N39W TO
19N43W. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 36W-42W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CENTERED FARTHER
SE WHERE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC. FARTHER S
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER HIGH IS PRESENT NEAR 8N22W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN


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