[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
38W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE N GULF IN THE
BASE OF A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSES NE FLORIDA AND ENTERS THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 28N88W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 24N95W 19N95W TO INLAND OVER SRN MEXICO. N-NE WINDS
AND A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARE OBSERVED N OF THIS
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 25N90W SW TO
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 18N93W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF
THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH
ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC ACROSS SRN FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS COMBINING WITH DRY AIR
AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN...
WHERE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ARE
OBSERVED. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NEWD
INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEING USHERED IN
ON STRONG TRADE WINDS E OF 74W. THESE STRONG TRADE WINDS...S OF
A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N60W ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AS
A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS MOVES NEWD. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY W TO NW WINDS
AND RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. FARTHER TO THE E...
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF
A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N60W. ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N30W SW TO 23N41W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AN UPPER HIGH IS PRESENT NEAR 5N39W. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN




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