[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 1N27W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 33W...EXTENDING TO 1S42W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 18W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 2N BETWEEN 30W-36W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 39W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NW
GULF AS A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE CONUS MOVES EASTWARD. INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 92W. AT THE
SAME TIME...SE SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE GULF. ALSO...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE E GULF.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS COMBINING WITH DRY AIR
AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ALOFT TO INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE S AND E GULF. DURING THE NEXT
DAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF...FOLLOWED BY INCREASED NW AND
N WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ARE PRESENT.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
15N E OF 68W. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N67W TO 17N69W...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG TRADE WINDS S
OF A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 34N69W ARE
OCCURRING AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER DRY AND SUBSIDENCE ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC...WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1031
MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N69W. TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS
PRESENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N60W TO
29N47W TO 32N44W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM SE OF THE COLD FRONT IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 36W-39W. FARTHER
E...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E
ATLC...WHERE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS
PRESENT. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER HIGH IS PRESENT
NEAR 3N47W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
COHEN


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