[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
30W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 23W-27W. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN
30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD ON S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
ARE OBSERVED N OF 26N W OF 88W. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
RESULTING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS
EARLY WED. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ON A HIGH IN THE W ATLC
EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SLY
RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT COVERS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID-WEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IMPACTS THE ENTIRE GULF PROVIDING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE E OF 93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
AND INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND
HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN
67W-75W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH N OF AREA AND LOWER
PRES OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER CUBA AND
JAMAICA. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NE BRAZIL EXTENDS A
RIDGE NW PROVIDING THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH SW UPPER FLOW E OF
77W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...FROM NEAR 20N57W
CONTINUING ALONG 20N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. NW OF THE TROUGH...A 1032 MB
SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES W OF 60W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE W ATLC...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SE
BAHAMAS...GREATER ANTILLES...AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N51W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N60W. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS THE FRONT MOVES NE OF THE
AREA. IN THE ERN ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
31N28W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 25N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ERN ATLC...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FROM N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 14N36W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS E OF
30W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION.

$$
HUFFMAN


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