[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
47W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
1W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
OVER TEXAS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF W OF 92W. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS ON WED. A SFC RIDGE CENTERED
ON A HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 20-25 KT COVERS THE REGION.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST...AND THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.
ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS E OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO
AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR
OVER W PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN
66W-73W. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...UP TO 4 INCHES...HAVE
BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH N OF AREA AND
LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
NE BRAZIL EXTENDS A RIDGE NW ENVELOPING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES IS ADVECTING
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SFC TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N30W AND CONTINUING ALONG 26N40W
24N50W22N60W AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...A 1029  MB SFC
HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES W OF 66W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A STRONGER HIGH PRES
EXITING THE MID ATLC STATES...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE BAHAMAS...GREATER ANTILLES...AND CARIBBEAN
SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING S INTO THE ATLC AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY N OF 29N
BETWEEN 57W-66W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE JUST GRAZING
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE EASTERN ATLC IS
COVERED BY A RIDGE CIRCLING TWO SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS...A
1025 MB HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A 1024 MB
HIGH OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION.

$$
WADDINGTON





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