[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N22W 2N32W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN
39W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG 1038 MB SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER ALABAMA DOMINATES THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH...NLY FLOW IS
ADVECTING COOL AND DRY AIR. THE AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS AND IS FAIRLY MILD OVER THE W GULF WHERE SLY
RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN ENHANCED BY WIDESPREAD STABILITY ALOFT...CAUSED BY
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NE AND A RIDGE TO THE SE.
THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHIFTING WINDS E TO SE AREA-WIDE...ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO
MODIFY ACROSS THE E GULF. ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE WATERS FRI AND
THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LIKELY CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE STALLING FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TOWARD PANAMA ALONG 19N70W 15N78W 10N80W. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A 1038 MB HIGH PRES
SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.
SIMILAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE MORE USUAL ZONE
NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. FAIRLY DENSE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY S
OF 17N. A SIMILAR AREA OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND
DRIVEN SW TOWARD THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS
MOISTURE IS SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE AS
OBSERVED IN UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MERGED WITH A SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARY
ALONG 32N58W 24N64W TO ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS FRONT
CURRENTLY HAS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT OBTAINED BY A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC...NEW ENGLAND AND ERN CANADA.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF PIVOTING NE
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE LIES N OF THE ZONE
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING LIES E OF THE
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED 1032 MB
SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N40W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ELONGATED
TROUGH LIES E OF THE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE E ATLC. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N12W AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 28N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 19W. A SW UPPER JET LIES
JUST E OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS NE ACROSS WRN
AFRICA...DRIVING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE S OF 20N E OF 35W.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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