[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N9W 3N16W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 24W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2S TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-35W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5S-2S W OF 40W INTO NE BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS ALABAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF
REGION.  THIS IS SEEN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER LEVELS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINANT WITH A 1028 MB
CENTER IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
THE SW GULF IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF TAMPICO. THE TAIL END OF A
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BUT THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND TROUGH ARE TO
THE E OF THE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TO ALONG COASTAL BELIZE AND
HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT WITH N TO NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT NW OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CROSSING CENTRAL PANAMA...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW CENTER W OF THE WRN COLUMBIAN COAST...IS
SUPPORTING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE COAST OF COLUMBIA NEAR 9N76W IS PROVIDING
RIDGING OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A POST-FRONTAL WAVE OF
ENERGY TO THE W OF THE MAIN FRONT IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH AND ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N74W AND CONTINUES SW CROSSING
THE FAR WRN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR WRN ATLC WATERS. A
SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTED TO A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA IS IN THE
NE ATLC EXTENDING SW FROM 31N17W TO 27N26W TO 25N40W. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE ATLC.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ARE
CONTROLLED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36N42W.


$$
WALTON/CANGIALOSI






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