[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 2N15W 1N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE AXIS TO 1N W OF 42W
AND INLAND OVER BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE SW
GULF...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST GULF...PRODUCTS OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE LAST
DAY OR TWO. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FIRST...AND STRONGER...FRONT
EXITED THE REGION AND NOW STRETCHES FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
ENTERS THE GULF JUST SOUTH OF FORT MYERS AND CONTINUES TO NEAR
23N86W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW GULF...STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GALE FORCES WINDS OBSERVED
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N AND W OF 93W. EXPECT WINDS TO
WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FRONT CROSSES CUBA AND ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR 22N81W THEN STRETCHES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE
NW OF THE FRONT. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS
THE BASIN BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE ATLC AND A LOW OVER COLOMBIA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 30 KT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE
COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT MOVED
ACROSS FLORIDA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 0900
UTC...THE PRIMARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N75W
AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. THE
SECONDARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N78W AND CONTINUES SW
CROSSING FLORIDA SOUTH OF LAKE OCKEECHOBEE BEFORE ENTERING THE
GULF OF MEXICO. DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE PREMIER FRONT. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS SURROUND THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DEPICT A SFC
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N25W TO 27N40W. OTHERWISE...A
SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N47W
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.


$$
WADDINGTON






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