[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N7W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
31W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN
15W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
VERMILION BAY AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WRN GULF THEN INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THE FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL SE U.S. AND WRN GULF. E OF THE FRONT...A 1010 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N86W AND EXHIBITS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM
THE CENTER ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO WEST PALM BEACH.
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 25N93W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ARE AIDING IN SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 24N...INCLUDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NRN
COLOMBIA NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WRN ATLC HIGH AND A 1009 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THESE TRADES ARE PRODUCING
POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 67W AND
ALSO ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA COASTLINES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS IS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC W OF 70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA AND INTO
THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 25N AND W OF 78W AS A RESULT. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE ERN
GULF IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE FAR W
ATLC OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED
WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE N-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS SW TO
28N45W AND THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 23N60W TO THE
TURKS ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N57W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO
NE OF THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WITH A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 26N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANARY
ISLANDS IN THE FAR NE ATLC WITH MAINLY LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE ERN ATLC E OF 30W. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 26N44W. TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 15N40W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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