[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE SOUTH
OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. STRONG SHOWERS ARE IN TWO CELLS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE ENERGY
FOR A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THEN SWINGS TO THE FAR WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO EASTERN JAMAICA TOWARD
THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 10N80W 17N70W BEYOND
17N60W. BROAD AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 65W...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 22N66W. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 28N50W 21N60W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 18N52W TO
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N40W BEYOND 32N34W.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE 986 MB GALE CENTER
TO THE PORTUGAL COAST JUST SOUTH OF 40N CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT
AN AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W. ANOTHER
BRANCH OF A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N20W TO 7N47W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AROUND
THE 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N37W.

$$
MT





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