[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W TO THE EQUATOR AT 26W AND ALONG
THE EQUATOR TO 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 27W-37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF
85W ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF DUAL 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS...ONE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR OCALA AND
THE OTHER IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN GULF TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN.
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ALOFT...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES
WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OBSERVED ACROSS THE SE GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SW HAITI TO OVER
THE SRN COAST OF JAMAICA AND THEN INLAND OVER NRN NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM
ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 14N
WITH 15-20 KT N-NE WINDS OBSERVED BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-74W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS
ENHANCING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM
GUADELOUPE TO NE COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W EXTENDING SW
TO 23N60W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 32N73W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLC. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS NOTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N36W. ACROSS THE FAR NERN ATLC...A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CLIPS 32N11W 30N18W TO 31N26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CANARY AND
MADEIRA ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR
25N43W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN ELONGATED AND NARROW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SE WITH AXIS ALONG THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA
TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N30W TO 12N43W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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