[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA...OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W...THROUGH 6.5N17W 7N23W 5N30W
3N40W...TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR THE CITY OF AMAPA AT 2S52W.
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. TO THE
WEST OF 27W...THE ITCZ HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CALM OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE WEST
CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 28N86W 25N89W 24N95W. THIS FRONT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 23N...OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ON A EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING BEHIND DEVELOPING GALE WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WIDE
TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTINENTAL US
IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FURTHER SUPPORTING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ALONG 29N92W 26N93W 24N95W MOVING ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST AT ABOUT 25 KTS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CROSS NEW ORLEANS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO..CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES WILL
SWEEP DOWN OVER THE GULF WITH FURTHER SHOWERS IN THIS REGION.
NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH A
LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR ALOFT AND
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...THE
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PASSING 70 NM SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THUS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING IN WEST-SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION 30 NM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THESE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N70W. SHIP
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS
THE BASIN. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST BASIN WILL LESSEN AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP DEEP CONVECTION FROM HAPPENING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN NEAR THE 20N LINE...BRINGING POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...MOVING ALONG
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB INTO THE WESTERN BASIN. THUS
LIGHT SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
200 NM NE OF THE BAHAMAS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
WEST ATLANTIC. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE TAIL END OF
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N32W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 23N40W 17N50W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLAND HISPANIOLA. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THE
FRONT TO 60W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150
NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
ATLANTIC IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...BRINGING CONVECTION TO THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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