[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 7N14W 6N22W 3N32W 3N43W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ITCZ HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1017 MB LOW IS OVER S ALABAMA WITH COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE GULF JUST E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA EXTENDING SW ALONG
26N90W BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY ALONG 25N93W TO 23N94W THEN
DISSIPATING TO NEAR 21N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE
GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG
23N94W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
FAR E GULF IS RETREATING EASTWARD MOSTLY COVERING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT COVERS MUCH OF THE
E US AND IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC PRODUCING A MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE N GULF N OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO
TAMPA FLORIDA WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 TO 125 KT. THE COLD
FRONT IS BEGINNING TO STALL AS REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL FILTER
INTO NW GULF THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W W TO 17N67W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
N OF 16N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS E
OF 70W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY STABLE OVER THE AREA SUPPRESSING ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH FRI AS REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
15N W OF 70W LEAVING THE S CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA WITH A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W EXTENDING SW ALONG
25N45W TO 19N55W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE N LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTING THE FRONT COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 21N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120
NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N23W. THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE E US WILL LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE





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