[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1130 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W TO 4.5N20W 4N30W 3N40W TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
THE CITY OF MAPACA AT 1N50W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION 100 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
PREPARES TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
BRINGING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI DOWN TO PAPAMTIA MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1018 MB
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
27N95W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO LOUISIANA COAST.
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DISPLAY EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH SWINGING NORTH OF
THE GULF...WHILE MOVING THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THEREFORE...CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN NORTH OF 24N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 81W...SUPPRESSING
DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OF AIR OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL BASIN...AND SOME MID
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE NNW BASIN. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY SHOWS AND AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS FOUND OVER THE
NE BASIN NEAR PUERTO RICO. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE ISLAND OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING 50 NM NORTH OF SAN JUAN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THIS AREA...AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES ITS CRUISE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE BASIN. COMPUTER MODELS KEEP HIGH PRESSURE WEATHER
ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
30N50W TO 23N55W TO NORTH OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
FRONT WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN 50 NM EAST OF THIS FRONT COVERING AN
AREA FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE FRONT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE 1025 MB HIGH IS FOUND OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N35W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FOUND
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ENTERING TO NORTHWEST AFRICA. THIS
TROUGH IS DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS THE NORTH AFRICAN REGION.
LOOK FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRONT TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...BECOMING
ALMOST STATIONARY...WITH SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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