[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N30W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-3N
BETWEEN 49W-52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 25W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE
GULF OF MEXICO ESPECIALLY S OF 28N. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N98W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N95W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE S OF 26N AND W OF 95W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 98W IS PRODUCING SW FLOW
OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 88W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 70-90 KT 25O MB
WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF N OF 22N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO S FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE. ALSO
EXPECT 20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF
WITH SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 84W-86W. FURTHER E... A BAND OF
SHOWERS IS W OF JAMAICA FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 78W-82W. FURTHER
S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND
COST RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-68W. MODERATE
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA EXCEPT OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WHERE BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 30N71W TO
24N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
71W-74W...AND FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 67W-71W. ELSEWHERE...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLANTIC TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 32N21W 21N40W 19N50W 18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE OF THE FRONT. A VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING
GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 30W-38W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-55W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 19N16W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THIS CENTER TO
BEYOND THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E...AND FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net