[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUD0S AND 20 KT N WINDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N85W PRODUCING 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER
THE N GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO N FLORIDA N OF 28N DUE TO
RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER
A 300 NM WIDE SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W TO BEYOND
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS NOTED OVER THE N
GULF N OF THE ABOVE SWATH. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO BE OVER THE E GULF ALONG 84W WITH SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N85W 15N85W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN
83W-86W. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 22N78W 20N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
71W-77W...AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 18N
BETWEEN 60W-70W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N NICARAGUA NEAR
13N87W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH TROUGH AXIS
ALONG 60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO N OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N25W 21N40W 19N50W 19N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING STORM
FORCE WINDS N OF 30N BETWEEN 35W-42W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO
N OF 27N E OF LINE FROM 31N46W TO 27N42W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N13W. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTEND SW FROM THE CENTER TO NEAR 18N32W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
17N23W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THIS CENTER TO
BEYOND THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net