[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 2N45W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 24N-28N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 21W-23W...FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM
3N-4N BETWEEN 30W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT
SE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF AND FLORIDA. A
997 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N101W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO N MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...70-90 KT
ZONAL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW
OVER TEXAS TO DEEPEN TO 989 MB AND MOVE TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND S FROM THIS LOW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 90W WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION EXTENDING OVER THE
NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 70W-71W...AND INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 69W-72W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 65W-70W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
15N BETWEEN 60W-72W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH TO DISSIPATE WITH CONVECTION
REMAINING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
30N12W TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 21N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 10W-18W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N17W 28N26W 28N40W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF
20N FROM 70W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 15W. IN THE TROPICS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
14N54W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
16N25W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO
MOVE E. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
20N-27N BETWEEN 50W-65W DUE TO A NEW SURFACE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA





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