[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 4N30W 4N45W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 25W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 29W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE-S SURFACE WINDS OVER THE N
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE N OF 23N W OF 87W. SIMILAR
CLOUDS ARE OVER CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF
81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A VERY SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 83W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE AS NOTED ABOVE
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION EXTENDING OVER THE NW GULF.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA AT 18N75W. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM HISPANIOLA AT 20N70W TO THE LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 70W-75W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 75W-77W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE NEAR THE LOW
CENTER WHILE MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING WSW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
67W-76W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO
MOVE NE TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO N COLOMBIA. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION NEAR THIS LOW
AND TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N12W TO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 21N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO HISPANIOLA AT 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
10W-22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONTS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
17N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N57W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS BETWEEN 35W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF 35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION N OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 57W-78W DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA







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