[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N9W 3N22W 3N34W AND 4N50W. WEAK
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND EAST AND NORTH OF FRENCH
GUIANA...AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND
40W. ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF CENTRAL
LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 30N83W.
THEREFORE FAIR WEATHER DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS COVERING THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS
DOMINATING OVER THE BASIN. MODEL DATA INDICATES LIGHT WEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
87W. HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS BEEN MOVED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST TO NEAR 82W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG 17N75W 15N78W 11N80W. A 1010 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
80W-73W. SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN
THE WEATHER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS FOUND EAST OF 72W DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THIS
AREA. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KTS
ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST JAMAICA...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N28W TO
HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N35W 24N44W 21N56W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE NORTH OF 26 BETWEEN 42W AND 55W. A
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND EAST OF THE
FRONT FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 16W-35W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS
THE REGION. ANOTHER 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 17N40W. LOOKING AT UPPER LEVEL DATA...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
COVERS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WITH FURTHER
CONVECTION MOVING TO THE EAST ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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