[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N15W 4N25W 4N39W 1N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2200 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 30N81W 25N82W 20N84W 17N86W.
A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED 50-100 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 80W FROM 21N TO 30N...CROSSING THE
STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE RANGING BETWEEN 25 KTS AND
30KTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LEAVES
THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERTAKES THE NW BASING.
LOOK FOR NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 22N83W 20N84W 17N86W. A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD AND PRODUCING MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF CUBA AND WEST OF JAMAICA. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REVEAL
STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. RADAR IMAGERY DISPLAYS PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LOOK FOR TRADEWINDS AND SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 30N36W TO
24N42W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS
ALONG 22N56W TO 23N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 23N TO 32N
BETWEEN 30W-40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 23N20W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FOR A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO HEAD OUT OF THE EASTERN US COAST AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BRINGING CONVECTION TO THAT REGION.
ALSO...EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE AND
EXPAND EAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net