[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 6N40W 1N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
25W-30W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR
27N101W. NOT FAR AWAY A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N95W. NEEDLESS TO SAY A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S
OF 28N AND W OF 95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG 26N86W 27N80W. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS
S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTH MEXICO
ALONG 18N95W 18N97W 20N100W. RADAR SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER
THE NW GULF AND OVER S TEXAS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 95W-100W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONTS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS N OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF ARE
PREDOMINATELY NE 15-20 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
GULF EXCEPT THE SE GULF WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW AND RELATED COLD FRONTS TO DRIFT NE TO
THE LOUISIANA COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS A RESULT
OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN COLOMBIA. STRONGEST WINDS OF
25-30 KT REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE
CARIBBEAN NAMELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
78W FROM 13N-20N...AND THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
82W FROM 8N-20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.
EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 32N67W TO S FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1020
MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N69W. A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NE TO 28N34W 30N29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 32W-36W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 21W-24W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 50W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. EXPECT... A THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE
SE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA








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