[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 6N35W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 11W-14W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
25W-29W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO FROM S LOUISIANA TO THE S TEXAS COAST ALONG 30N92W 28N95W
26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS INLAND TO EAGLE PASS TEXAS ALONG 30N94W 28N98W
29N100W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS DRY AIR ALOFT PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 86W. EXPECT...
CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE N GULF AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS A RESULT
OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35
KT REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN NAMELY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W
FROM 11N-17N...AND THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W
FROM 8N-20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN
TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 30N53W 30N60W 32N70W.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE CANARY
ISLANDS ALONG 32N16W 27N20W 21N30W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO 20N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 50W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. EXPECT... A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLANTIC
AT 32N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N40W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA








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