[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N30W 1N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...PRIMARILY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
DRAPED ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA TO
HOUSTON TEXAS AND S-SW TO BROWNSVILLE. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
MAINLY INLAND ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS REACHING INTO THE GULF REMAINING N OF 28N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ON S-SE
RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF AND E/CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TOMORROW...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF
WATERS EARLY TUESDAY WITH N-NE WINDS TO 30 KT EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES HIGHLIGHT THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N76W.
HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE USHERING IN ISOLATED POCKETS
OF LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES ENHANCED AREAS NE OF A LINE FROM MARTINIQUE TO
S/CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND ALSO FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE
ATLC HIGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 55W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N65W
NEAR BERMUDA TO 31N70W...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-70W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 70W. ALOFT THE W ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N76W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N56W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N30W TO
22N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO
19N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A LINGERING SHEARLINE TRAILING TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN E ATLC.
ELSEWHERE SE OF THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE
EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN



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