[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N10W...TO 7N20W
4N30W 3N40W 3N46W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE
EQUATOR AT 51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 15W AND 17W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 8N BETWEEN
SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 52W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A SHALLOW STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...GOING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA
TO THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 27W AND 28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 91W AND THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE
WEST OF 89W. THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE
AREA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 83W AND 89W...FROM NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA...ACROSS HONDURAS...TO THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
BELIZE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA
FROM 13N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 65W...NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.
BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 31N54W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N54W TO 31N57W TO 28N64W 28N74W...TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N79W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N73W 29N64W BEYOND 32N53W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TO THE WEST OF 40W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N19W TO 27N20W TO 22N23W
TO 15N30W TO 15N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W
TO 29N27W. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT.

$$
MT





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