[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 6N20W 3N31W 3N41W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W-33W...AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
VERO BEACH NEAR 28N80W ENTERING THE GULF WATERS S OF FORT MYERS NEAR
26N82W CONTINUING ACROSS THE SE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W TO 20N92W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AXIS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS N FLORIDA FROM 31N81W TO
THE BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N83W CONTINUING TO 27N87W. NO SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TROUGH
ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WITH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL TONIGHT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER S
FLORIDA KEEPING MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS S FLORIDA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE
TEXAS COAST FRI WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. STRONG NLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT REACHING GALE FORCE LATE FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A FEW SPOTTED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF HONDURAS NEAR 19N84W. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO STALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W CONTINUING TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA AT
28N80W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT AXIS. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM E CUBA ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS CONTINUING TO THE NE IS ENHANCING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 35N53W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 1020 MB LOW
NEAR 33N39W ALONG 28N42W 22N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG
42W. THE E ATLC IS COVERED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH NEAR 38N20W. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG
WLY WINDS ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ IN THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALTON





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