[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 13N50W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOT ANALYZED AS THIS
SYSTEM IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE UNIFORM. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS 13N-16N BETWEEN 48W-52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 45W-52W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 53W-55W. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES WNW 10-15 KT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 25W/26W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND
IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY MAKING TRACKING DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N FROM THE WAVE AXIS TO 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND DRY STABLE AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS LIMITING SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 9N29W 16N46W 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 16W-20W AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 51W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION OVER THE W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR PENSACOLA EXTENDING WESTWARD
TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS CONTINUING ACROSS S
LOUISIANA INTO E TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE N GULF WATERS N OF 28N FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE MEXICAN
BORDER TO CORPUS CHRISTI. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TO
NEAR 26N87W WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF
EXTENDING FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E HALF OF THE
U.S. THROUGH SW GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W GULF BUT CONCENTRATED S OF 25N W OF 94W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 87W FROM W HONDURAS TO W CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS 18N W OF
86W AND N OF 21N BETWEEN 82W-85W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W COLOMBIA ALONG 17N78W
ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N77W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N
BETWEEN 77W-83W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES N OF 15N BETWEEN E CUBA AND THE VIRGIN
PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-74W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA USHERING IN ISOLATED FAST MOVING LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W TO OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOW MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TUE/EARLY WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDING FROM E CUBA
ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 32N73W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W AND CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY N OF
30N W OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN FROM
THE E ATLC THROUGH 33N22W AND A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CENTERED
NEAR 29N36W...28N54W...TO A THIRD NEAR 21N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 30N71W OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ALONG
23N72W TO 26N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 3W-71W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 52W-58W. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION W OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net