[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 16N42W TO A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N44W TO 7N49W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
45W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W IN WHAT APPEARS
TO BE POSSIBLY ITCZ PRECIPITATION THAT IS BEING ENHANCED AND/OR
PUSHED NORTHWARD BY THE LOW CENTER/TROPICAL WAVE SYSTEM. THE
CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N...NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS.
THE CYCLONICALLY-SWIRLING LOW CLOUDS IN THE MOST CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE THE WAVE PAST THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE RIGHT NOW.

...THE ITCZ...

11N23W 12N40W 6N50W TO 8N61W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
DISORGANIZED AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W...AND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN
27W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 88W IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINS AWAY
FROM CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE JIMENA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...CROSSES MEXICO AND REACHES 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 88W IS COVERED
BY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW COMES FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE MEXICO COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 90W AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO
EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 17N83W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO JUST
OFF CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...
EVEN REACHING COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALSO ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 17N83W
CYCLONIC CENTER...MOVING FROM 18N NORTHWARD TO CUBA BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND THE ISLE OF PINES/THE ISLE OF YOUTH OF CUBA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
IS PUSHING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W TO THE NORTH OF 17N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 31N64W TO
20N65W...PUSHING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 70W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N49W. THE
FLOW AROUND THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS TILTED ALONG A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST LINE FROM 32N43W TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 29N49W
TO 25N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
58W AND 65W.

$$
MT






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