[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO
THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N30W. MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND
23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 16N40W TO A 1011 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N43W TO 7N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN
36W AND 55W. THE CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED TO BE ALONG
66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT.
THIS WAVE WAS RE-LOCATED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE DATA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE RIGHT NOW.

...THE ITCZ...

14N17W 14N22W 12N28W 15N37W 7N51W 8N61W. THE COMPARATIVELY
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 2N TO 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM GEORGIA INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME EVEN
MORE AND MORE STRETCHED ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...
STILL ENDING IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO ACROSS
90W...UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A STATIONARY
FRONT GOES FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL AREA...DECREASING IN QUANTITY MORE AND MORE ALONG
THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 17N83W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO
JUST OFF CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE JUST TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN CUBA AND 18W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
BETWEEN 77W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN THE
GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 29N64W
TO 22N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N48W.
THE FLOW AROUND THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS TILTED ALONG A
NORTHEAST- SOUTHWEST LINE FROM 32N44W TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 29N48W TO 25N56W.
$$
MT





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