[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS NEAR 32.6N 75.2W
OR ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA AND ABOUT 765 MILES...1230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AT 29/0300 UTC. DANNY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY TCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. ED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 190 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 665 MILES...1075 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N72W 32N74W.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 11N40W 6N41W.
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N40W. MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W
AND 49W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE NEWEST TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE AREA
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN OUR AREA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH AND/OR ALREADY MOVED THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 22N
BETWEEN 78W AND 90W.

...THE ITCZ...

14N17W 12N27W 9N47W 11N56W 9N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO 28N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS LIFTING
OUT NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO ACROSS 90W...UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM EAST TEXAS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREA...AND IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 27N TO 28N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 17N82W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N TO 25N
BETWEEN 77W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF
COSTA RICA...AND FROM NORTHERN COASTAL CUBA TO ANDROS ISLAND
AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE MOVE FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS HAITI AND BEYOND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND A 31N45W
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N TO 35N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND A 27N22W
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N TO 33N BETWEEN 16W AND 26W.

$$
MT



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