[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 71.2W OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 735 MILES...1185
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AT 26/2100
UTC MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/ WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE CENTER. BUOY
41047 JUST N OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN REPORTING 35 KT WINDS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
23N-25N BETWEEN 65W-69W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
13W/14W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE
AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. A MAXIMUM IN
SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL W OF THE AXIS FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 23W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE
APPEARS TO HAVE DRY AIR TO THE W OF THE AXIS. THE WAVE IS ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 39W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
THIS IS THE WAVE THAT T.S. DANNY BROKE AWAY FROM AND IS NOW S OF
HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 71W-73W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N23W 16N33W 9N50W
9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
34W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF ALONG 30N85W 26N86W 24N90W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...W
CUBA ...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 80W-89W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 95W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
21N84W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE
GULF. EXPECT...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE
S GULF AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
10N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN
72W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HAITI
NEAR 19N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
PRODUCE STRONGER TRADEWINDS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. DAVID IS THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
34N58W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 34N31W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM
20N-32N BETWEEN 30W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER
E AT 26N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NW OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N27W.

$$
FORMOSA



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