[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N67W 24N69W 21N69W...MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF
24N69W IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT FLEW THROUGH THIS AREA
DURING THE TIMES FROM 25/1900 UTC UNTIL 25/2100 UTC DID NOT
SHOW A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE
27N67W 21N69W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALSO JUST HAPPENS TO BE IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. SHOWERS ALSO COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM HAITI TO 32N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

..TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 12N TO 22N
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE GOES FROM 33N35W TO 23N38W TO
18N37W AND 12N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM
15N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

A MIDDLE LATITUDE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY
AROUND THE MORE-LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 36W/37W
TROPICAL WAVE...AND IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 15N TO 25N.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE.
IT IS NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED
IMAGERY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO GUATEMALA
BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST
OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 80W AND AND LAND...AND FROM LAND TO 17N BETWEEN 84W
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

THE ITCZ...
FROM 11N16W TO 13N35W 10N43W 8N50W BEYOND 8N63W IN NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N41W 10N46W 8N49W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 12N35W 8N48W 9N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND
22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES TO HAVE
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO A SPOT THAT IS 100 NM TO THE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO 29N85W 27N93W 26N91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN
400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N68W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N73W TO 10N77W NEAR THE THE COLOMBIA
COAST AND THE GULF OF URABA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 88W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 33N53W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N68W...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS THE TROUGH THAT IS
ON TOP OF THE 27N67W 21N69W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF
GALE-FORCE WINDS.

$$
MT





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