[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BROKEN AWAY FROM A TROPICAL WAVE IS E
OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG 24N63W 23N67W 20N68W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN CLUSTERS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
68W-69W...FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 60W-66W...AND FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 60W-63W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER A SMALL AREA WITHIN
150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF 23N67W.  A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND
60 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 900 FT...BUT DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 17 KT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1010
MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N35W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 19N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 17N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. A
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 80W-87W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 11N25W 14N35W 8N40W 7N50W
9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 30N83W 26N85W 23N90W 20N96W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN
80W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE S GULF OF
MEXICO S OF 24N TO INCLUDE W CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N. EXPECT...THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE BUT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE OVER THE S GULF AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
70W-82W. A 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 71W-77W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
21N67W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
PRODUCE STRONGER TRADEWINDS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N80W EXTENDING
ACROSS N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1024 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N55W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N36W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 21N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N36W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 19N22W.

$$
FORMOSA



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