[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 251146
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  EARLY MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AT THE
BORDER BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA TODAY.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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