[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 24/0300 UTC IS NEAR 47.9N 53.6W
OR ABOUT 90 MILES/145 KM...TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST 23 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AFOS/ WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

..TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W AND 55W...MOVING
WEST FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N
TO 20N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG  71W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

THE ITCZ...
FROM 14N17W TO 12N30W TO 10N40W TO 13N54W T0 12N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 16N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH IS GUIDING THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY
FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF...AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME. MODERATE SHOWERS BETWEEN 90W
AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAIN...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING WITH TIME ALSO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS INVADED THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM A LARGE-SCALE ATLANTIC OCEAN 26N61W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...CREATING
A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...BUT NO DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH IS MOVING ASHORE FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA.
THIS TROUGH IS BRINGING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 34N48W ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N61W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE 26N61W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 34N BETWEEN 48W AND 68W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE
26N61W CENTER. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 30N25W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 20N31W.

$$
MT


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