[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230618 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTIONS

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 23/0600 UTC IS NEAR 40.1N 67.4W
OR ABOUT 160 MILES/260 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ABOUT 365 MILES/590 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 961 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AFOS/
WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N TO 40N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
22W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 10N20W TO 12N38W 10N50W TO 10N63W NEAR TRINIDAD AND
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS TROUGH IS PUSHING THE CURRENT GULF COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...AND SOME ARE DISSIPATING...FROM TO
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST...
FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 80W. THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N71W INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 26N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N56W TO 16N59W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 30N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
17N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

$$
MT





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