[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED 18.7N 56.3W...OR
ABOUT 380 MILES/610 KM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ABOUT 1080 MILES/1735 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 80 MILES/130 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES/280 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO GO FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 28N BETWEEN
48W AND 61W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N21N 8N19W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N44W 7N41W MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 20N84W 10N83W IS
THE REMNANT OF ANA THAT DISSIPATED A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KT. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM PANAMA TO 12N
BETWEEN 79W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...
11N21W 10N30W 10N40W 10N61W NEAR TRINIDAD AND NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 31N60W
TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N72W TO 28N74W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N71W 26N79W 24N85W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND WATERS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 25N103W CLOSE TO TORREON. NO
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS CYCLONIC CENTER
AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W
IN AN AREA OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH.
SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 23N TO THE WEST
OF 95W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH
COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 76W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE
APPROACHING FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE BILL.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N
BETWEEN 69W AND 70W...SOME ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOVING WITH THE LARGER-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND FLOW THAT IS WELL AWAY FROM HURRICANE BILL.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL IS NEAR 32N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM
28N TO 34N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 33N37W 29N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES FROM 31N43W TO
30N50W TO 27N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM 29N21W TO 26N24W TO 23N29W TO 22N39W AND
15N43W. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT



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