[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0300 UTC IS NEAR 15.0N
48.3W...OR ABOUT 975 MILES...1570 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AT 85 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 105 KT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130
MILES. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/ WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 46W-51W.



 SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NW
OF THE SYSTEM FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 68W-75W...AFFECTING MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA...ERN CUBA...AND THE SE BAHAMAS.



...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A DRY SLOT W OF THE WAVE AXIS AT
12N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 27W-32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF ANA...IS ALONG 70W S OF 20N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
THREATEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 70W-72W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N25W 11N30W 10N35W
13N45W 9N50W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
14W-18W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 25W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. CLAUDETTE ARE CURRENTLY INLAND OVER
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N89W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS HOWEVER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. FURTHER
S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
S MEXICO FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 94W-96W. SURFACE WINDS ARE
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE E TO SE AT 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
28N88W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR
20N100W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BLANKETS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS TO MOVE
OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF
25N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SW CUBA FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER CUBA...THE
THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
31N72W 27N78W 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N66W
23N70W 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS
TROUGH. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT
33N67W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N30W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CUBA IS
PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S BAHAMAS...ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM
20N-28N BETWEEN 70W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
20N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.
EXPECT BILL TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
FORMOSA






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