[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS INLAND CENTERED NEAR XX.XN XX.XW AT
17/1200 UTC OR XXXX INLAND NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA MOVING
NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOSTLY REMAINS OFF
SHORE COVERING THE AREA FROM N OF 28N TO THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 84W-87W.

TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 17/0900 UTC.
HURRICANE BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 44.0W AT 17/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 1010 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING WNW AT 19 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60/75 NM OF 13N FROM 42W-46W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
40W-47W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA IS CENTERED NEAR XX.XN XX.XW AT 17/1200
UTC OR ABOUT XX NM WEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT XXX NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 62W-67W
INCLUDING THE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE LEEWARDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS 17N28W TO 9N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
BECOMING MORE TILTED NW/SE..BEING DISTORTED BY HURRICANE BILL.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED
BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS ON THE ERN
SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW THAT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 9N31W 11N39W 11N48W 9N56W
10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 6N-11N...FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 24W-34W AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
THAT IS MOVING THE GULF COAST AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE COVERING THE S PORTION OF THE GULF. AN UPPER HIGH
IS OVER THE NE GULF ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR T.S. CLAUDETTE.
MOIST TROPICAL UPPER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE GULF GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 93W TO
JUST INLAND OVER THE NE GULF COAST STATES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO PUSH SE OF CLAUDETTE OVER THE S GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. ANA IS IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA NW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST TO THE
E OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SW FROM 12N-18N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 17N BETWEEN HAITI AND
W/CENTRAL CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 72W-83W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS USHERING IN LOW LEVEL FAST
MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF
70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL ATLC IS BEING IMPACTED BY HURRICANE BILL. AN UPPER LOW
COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N75W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
22N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING
THE AREA WITHIN 225 NM NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. TO THE E OF THE
UPPER LOW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 21N69W TO
26N62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF BERMUDA AND A PAIR
OF 1024 MB HIGHS IN THE NE ATLC THUS GIVING THE CENTRAL AND ERN
ATLC GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.

$$
PAW/MF






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