[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 170247
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

CLAUDETTE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF
40-45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT.   MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON THE STORM...AND
APPARENTLY PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND IT IS IN THESE
CONVECTIVE REGIONS WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE.  WITH LANDFALL NOW IMMINENT...THE WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS QUICKLY CLOSING.

THE CENTER WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT NOW IS
MORE OR LESS BACK ON TRACK...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED.  INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 315/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST AND
REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INLAND FLOODING.  PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND
WARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0300Z 30.2N  86.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 31.3N  87.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 33.0N  88.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 35.0N  88.9W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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