[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161700
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM
CLAUDETTE AT 16/1500 UTC...NEAR 28.7N 84.6W...OR ABOUT 75 MILES/
120 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
200 MILES/320 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. CLAUDETTE
IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST AND
85W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST
OF 90W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA AT 16/1500 UTC IS NEAR 14.8N
55.8W OR ABOUT 430 NM/690 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 17 KT. ANA SHOULD REACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY ON THIS FORECAST TRACK.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 16N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL AT 16/1500 UTC IS NEAR
12.1N 38.4W...OR ABOUT 1555 MILES/2500 KM TO THE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. T.S. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W...AND
FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N22W 13N21W
10N21W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 24W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO COASTAL PANAMA. IT IS NOT
EASY TO DETERMINE WHICH PRECIPITATION JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA OF THE TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 10N22W 12N35W ...FROM
10N41W TO 9N50W...BEYOND TRINIDAD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND ELSEWHERE
FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN MEXICO ABOUT 150 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA INTO
THE REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N93W 22N94W 17N95W IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W...AND
FROM 25N TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST/LOUISIANA COAST TO THE
WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN MEXICO ABOUT 150 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA INTO
CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL COASTAL PANAMA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 10N78W 13N82W 15N82W 17N84W 19N87W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 18N
BETWEEN 63W AND 80W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 25N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N69W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 18N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 31N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N64W
25N67W 22N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 76W IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 31N50W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N52W TO 20N55W TO 12N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 25N29W TO 20N29W.
THIS FEATURE IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

$$
MT


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