[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS UPGRADED AT 15/0900 UTC TO TROPICAL
STORM. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 46.8W AT
15/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N32W TO 7N29W WITH A 1009 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS TO THE W OF THE LOW FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 32W-36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WELL DEFINED
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ALL THIS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-83W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS NOT PRODUCING
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 11N22W 12N28W THEN ALONG
9N33W 13N43W 12N53W 11N61W ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
AND SW CARIBBEAN THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 55W-57W.
CLUSTERS OF

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS S OVER THE GULF N OF 23N W OF 86W WHILE AN
UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CUBA
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
27N79W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE OVER THE SE GULF
TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N83W AND A SECOND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE INTO THE NE GULF TO NEAR 27N85W.
THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E GULF S OF 29N E OF 86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS
OVER S MEXICO COVERING THE SW GULF PROVIDING DRIER AIR AND
LIMITING SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST W OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W COVERING THE AREA W OF 77W ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...THUS
PROVIDING THE AREA E OF 75W WITH DRY UPPER AIR. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE FAR SW ATLC S OF 26N W OF 77W WITH AN UPPER HIGH NNE OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 28N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND COUPLED WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA S OF 26N TO OVER CUBA W OF 77W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA INTO GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS
TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N65W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 24N69W TO 27N72W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N65W TO
30N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
33N57W ALONG 29N61W TO 25N62W. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITH A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES
OF HIGHS...A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N72W...A 1023 MB HIGH N OF
BERMUDA NEAR 34N64W...AND A 1023 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N34W.

$$
WALLACE







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