[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANT 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO IS NEAR 15N43W...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W.
RE-DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N29W 10N29W 3N28W
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 31W AND 32.5W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SIDE OF EASTERN CUBA...ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA...INTO EASTERN
PANAMA AND BEYOND MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. 21N70W 15N70W 3N67W
IN SOUTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17.5N TO 20N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS STARTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
HAITI.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA BEYOND EXTREME WESTERN EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA. THIS AREA IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ...

14N17W 12N28W 11N50W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...TO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS
THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
15N80W TO WESTERN CUBA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 23N TO 27N
BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WEST OF 75W
FROM INTERIOR CUBA TO 32N.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN
LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. AND
MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THIS AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA
THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
TO 15N80W TO WESTERN CUBA IS MORE RELATED TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NOT THE 78W TROPICAL WAVE. THE STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W
ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 31N42W TO
A 27N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME HAVE DISSIPATED ALREADY LEAVING REMNANT
CLOUDS...FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. A SECOND MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N63W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W.

$$
MT



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