[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS WEAKENED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
IS NEAR 14.2N 38.3W...OR ABOUT 930 MILES/1500 KM TO THE WEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 7 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC BULLETIN UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 15N39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM WITH THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N70W 15N70W 3N67W IN
SOUTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17.5N TO 20N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS STARTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
HAITI.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 25 KT. THIS WAVE IS RIGHT UP AGAINST THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...

16N16W 11N25W 14N36W 9N47W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 35W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 6N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
AND U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE CENTRAL PART NORTHWARD.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HOVER AROUND WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
WATERS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND WEST CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH
A THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W. THE STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE AT THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...ATTRIBUTED MORE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS IN THAT AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN EASTERN CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF
10N74.5W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN PANAMA
TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA ARE NEAR THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 27N45W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N50W 19N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS...SOME HAVE DISSIPATED ALREADY LEAVING REMNANT CLOUDS...
FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W IS AROUND THE
24N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 17N40W 10N43W...AT THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
THAT IS AROUND THE REMNANT OF T.D. TWO.

$$
MT



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