[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 29.6W OR ABOUT
350 MILES...560 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS NOTED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONVECTION IS
CONFINES TO W OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 30W-32W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 52W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 60W-64W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED WELL W OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 15N25W 11N40W 13N52W
11N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
AND THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
16W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 20W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 31W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
30N. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTS THE GULF OF MEXICO GENERALLY MOVING W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 80W-82W. LIGHT
TO VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS OVER TO THE GULF.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER E PANAMA NEAR 8N77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM 20N-21N
BETWEEN 79W-81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N79W. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE N BAHAMAS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 78W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 26N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES AT 43N22W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N60W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 19N43W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
SPECIAL FEATURES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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